This is the Living Standards election
62% of voters say that living standards will sway how they vote
The UK is now fairly used to its general elections being based around key themes. In 2017 and 2019 politicians fought largely on the issue of Brexit, and the campaigns of 2010 and 2015 saw the economy emerge as the main battleground following the global financial crisis. 2024 will see tens of millions of people head to the polls and vote on a different issue, one that is impacting almost every household in the UK today: Living Standards.
At Citizens Advice we’ve seen the decade long deterioration of living standards in real time, culminating in the recent cost of living crisis. It is the issue that underpins the thousands of cases our expert advisers deal with every day. We’re used to helping people in times of crisis, but this is different. What would’ve been a shocking level of living standards just a few years ago has become the everyday reality for millions.
Our new research found that this will be the living standards election, with 63% of voters saying this and the cost of living will be an important factor in how they vote. *
Living standards are getting worse
Our data shows that the problem is getting worse, with the number of people in a negative budget soaring from just over 3 million at the start of 2020 to 5 million today. That is 5 million people, many of whom are in work and have loved ones to support, whose monthly income isn’t enough to pay for basic essentials each month.
And our research shows that another 2.35 million people are only avoiding falling into a negative budget because they are cutting back on spending to unsafe levels by skipping meals and living in cold homes.
Take Marta, who recently came to Citizens Advice seeking help. Marta is a single parent, pregnant, and about to be pushed into a negative budget as she loses the Universal Child element for her oldest child, and won’t get any money for her youngest. The family doesn’t spend money on anything but essentials — no gifts, no pocket money, no haircuts. And yet they are still £5,500 in arrears and Marta is now having to skip meals just to get enough food on the table for her children.
But this is not just an issue that is impacting those hardest hit by the cost-of-living crisis. For some households, the way they measure their standard of living could be affording a holiday every year. For others it may be about having a bit left over at the end of each month, or being able to go out for a meal at the weekend. Regardless of the metric used, people are seeing their living standards decline and are in agreement it’s an issue politicians need to fix.
It is an issue that cuts across every community and all demographics
Our exclusive polling shows that over half of all adults in every region** say living standards and cost of living will be an important issue in how they vote, and even in the least interested age group — over 65s — more than half say it will be a deciding factor when voting, increasing steadily as age groups get younger (70% of 18–34 yr olds).
It is an issue that should be gripping every single Member of Parliament and every national campaign coordinator, with an average of 62% of people in the top 50 marginal seats saying living standards could swing how they vote in the general election. In some constituencies the figure is as high as 83%.
In nearly all of the top 100 marginal seats in the upcoming election, there are more voters in a negative budget than the size of the majority between the 2 top parties.
Yet, despite the universality and dominance of this issue, our polling shows that voters remain unconvinced that either of the main UK parties have a plan for how to improve living standards.
It is not one of Labour’s ‘missions for Britain’, nor one of Rishi Sunak’s 5 priorities. Both parties lean instead on ‘growth’ which, while important, does not in and of itself offer solutions for out of control rents, unaffordable mortgages, spiralling household debt or a social contract so broken that no matter how many hours people work they still have more going out each month than they have coming in.
There is a clear and evidenced appetite from voters up and down the country to hear more about how the next government will help the millions of families struggling with falling living standards, or stuck in a negative budget. But so far no political party put forward a substantial vision or plan that would meaningfully turn the tide on this generational challenge.
*Survey data based on a representative poll of 10,100 adults (18+) in GB conducted by Opinium for Citizens Advice, fieldwork conducted between the 20th of December 2023 to 6th of January 2024.
**except Northern Ireland
